A recent study from Aston University has indicated that Brexit is exerting a "profound and ongoing stifling effect" on the trade of goods between the UK and the EU, suggesting that the economic repercussions of the UK's departure from the largest trading bloc are significant and escalating. The research suggests that from 2021 to 2023, the UK's annual merchandise exports to the EU were reduced by 17% compared to what they would have been without Brexit. The report notes a general downturn in exports across most sectors post-2021, with 2023 experiencing a more significant decline than previous years, indicating a deepening structural issue rather than a transient one.

The implications of Brexit pose a considerable challenge to the current Labour government's goal of stimulating economic growth, a priority since their election in July. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has emphasized economic growth in the upcoming budget, yet has dismissed the possibility of rejoining the EU's single market or customs union, which could have mitigated some of the trade challenges.

Official data indicates that exports, which are nearly evenly split between goods and services, constitute nearly a third of the UK's GDP, with the EU accounting for 48% of the country's goods exports. The report underscores the importance of the UK-EU trade relationship for economic stability and growth and points out a significant reduction in the diversity of British goods exported to the EU, particularly impacting small businesses in sectors like food and clothing due to increased costs and administrative burdens.

Professor Jun Du, the lead researcher, has identified "substantial barriers" introduced by the post-Brexit trade deal. To ameliorate trade relations, the study recommends that the government focus on "sector-specific" agreements, particularly in agriculture, simplify customs procedures with digital technology, and align regulations more closely with the EU. Without immediate policy changes, the UK's economic standing and global market position are at risk of further deterioration.

This report adds to the body of research highlighting the negative economic impact of Brexit. The UK in a Changing Europe think tank estimates that Brexit has caused a hit to UK GDP between 2% and 4% from the 2016 referendum to July of the previous year. The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts a long-term reduction in Britain's output by 4% compared to the scenario where the UK remained in the EU.

Despite the decline in goods exports to the EU, the government reports that service exports to the bloc have reached an all-time high, amounting to £172 billion ($227 billion) over the 12 months leading up to March. The UK government has stated its commitment to improving trade and investment ties with the EU while acknowledging that there will be no return to the single market, customs union, or freedom of movement.